Estimate only. Real costs depend on your climate, your home's insulation and your exact utility rates.
How the comparison works
- Heat you use today: the gas you burn for heating (in therms, from your bills) × 100,000 Btu per therm × your furnace efficiency (AFUE).
- Electricity a heat pump would need: that same heat ÷ (HSPF2 × 1,000). HSPF2 is the heat pump's seasonal heating efficiency in Btu per watt-hour.
- Costs: gas at your state's average residential price and electricity at your state's average residential price.
A negative result means the heat pump would cost more to run than your furnace.
Why the answer changes by state
A heat pump wins where electricity is cheap compared to gas. In states with expensive electricity and moderate gas prices, a minimum-efficiency heat pump can cost more to run than a gas furnace; a high-efficiency model (higher HSPF2) narrows or reverses that gap. Cooling is not included: if you would buy a new air conditioner anyway, a heat pump also does that job.
Data used
- Gas prices: EIA, residential natural gas price by state, 2025 annual average (2024 where 2025 is not yet published), converted at 10.37 therms per Mcf (EIA).
- Electricity prices: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B.
- The default HSPF2 of 7.5 is the federal minimum for split-system heat pumps made since January 1, 2023 (10 CFR 430.32). HSPF2 is measured for a reference climate; in very cold regions real efficiency is lower.